Overview & Description:

Heuristics refer to the mental shortcuts or “rules of thumb” that often involve focusing on one aspect of a complex problem and ignoring others. These strategies do not guarantee optimal solutions but provide a quick method for making a decision.

Key Points:

• Availability Heuristic: Relying on immediate examples that come to mind when evaluating a decision.
• Representativeness Heuristic: Judging the probability of an event based on how similar it is to another event.

Example:

Imagine you are asked to assess the likelihood of an event, say, a car accident. The availability heuristic might cause you to overestimate the probability of a car accident if you recently witnessed one or heard about a major accident in the news. Even though statistically, the odds of being in a car accident may be quite low, the recent, available information influences your judgment.

A representative heuristic example might involve judging the likelihood that a person you meet who is quiet and reserved is a librarian rather than a salesperson, based on stereotypical beliefs about these occupations. You might ignore the base rates, which indicate that there are likely more salespeople than librarians in the population, skewing the actual probability.

Implications:

Heuristics play crucial roles in decision-making where speed is a factor and optimal solutions are not necessary. They may sometimes lead to biases or irrational decisions.

References:

• Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Science, 185(4157), 1124-1131.